What Will We Use on June 30, 2011?

From ieteam's flickr stream under Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license, open the code Microsoft, or else...

March 2010 will prove to be a critical month in ending Microsoft’s chances of having majority browser market share. All of the sudden, people world wide will be asking themselves, “What will we use?”

I believe that every person should be free to choose a browser. How did I choose not to use Internet Explorer?

On my first internet computer, I used Mosaic as a web browser in 1993. In the 1990s I also tried AOL’s browser but Netscape Communicator was my favourite. By the end of the decade, I was using Mozilla on Linux causally. Through the mid-2000’s Windows 9x would be my primary desktop where I used Netscape/Mozilla/Firefox until my husband gave me an Apple.

Admittedly, I have not used Opera and Safari since 2003. I was using MacOSX on the desktop at the time and there was no definitive browser king for that platform at the time. I tried Internet Explorer and Firefox for the Mac too. As I recall, I ditched Opera because its no-cost product was Adware. Commercials would display in a panel taking up valuable screen real-estate and bandwidth. On that system, Safari was my favourite browser for a few months because it was the only one with tab support. Soon after, Firefox released tab support and I was back home with the Netscape/Mozilla based browsers. There were no features with Internet Explorer worth holding my attention. For the most part since 2005, I have faithfully using Firefox.

I do want to tip my hat to two other browsers: Safari and Opera.

Apple products, Safari is no exception, have aesthetics in mind. I’m sure some people appreciate its integration with Itunes. Due to it’s lack of Linux version, however, I have not even tried the Apple browser since 2005 when my MacOSX system died. Even so, I understand why people enjoy Safari. While the entire Safari browser is not open source, the core components known as Webkit are open source. have been re-implemented as Konquerer and Epiphany by KDE and GNOME. Quite honestly, I wonder if these browsers are mistaken for Safari in market share counters. Either way, Apple benefits from the code they do write and the code they did not directly sponsor to make the Safari product.

Are you paying attention Microsoft? Since you do not sell Internet Explorer as a product, why do you hold onto the code? Learn from your competitor Apple. This is how you can leverage open source to maintain relevance now that your browser is no longer holding the majority of market share.

Microsoft does not have a monopoly in the proprietary browser space. Opera, the browser that I have not as much as blinked at since 2003 is alive and well. Apparently, they are the fastest mobile web browser – a market where Microsoft suffers. Business at Opera is good since they have figured out how to monetize. Also paying the bills for Opera is Nintendo who have partnered web browsing product for Wii and DSi called the Internet Channel. While Microsoft makes console browsing difficult, Nintendo keeps their customers happy  Too bad for Microsoft who can not get past the vaporware stage when it comes to launching their own portable game system, let alone porting IE for it.

While Microsoft is teasing us with the idea that they MIGHT think about working with open web standards when they release IE9, Opera has been pushing for open standards for quite some time now. Recently, the Opera folks have gstreamer and promoting .ogg which is a huge win for anyone who believes in free content.

Seriously, Microsoft, people do not prefer your browser. This has been true for years. Web developers don’t want to support IE6 as of last March. They’ve banded together to bring down IE6 and now Microsoft has to listen. With end-of-life as of June 2010, Microsoft can no longer count IE6 as part of this market share. Even with NetApplications which continues to claim majority market share for IE, take out the IE6/5 and Microsoft only has 36.09% browser market share. Users will not upgrade from IE6 to another Microsoft product. Your market share tanks at the rate of 3% a quarter. Now that Europe is given a choice, Microsoft does not have a prayer of holding onto significant browser market share. Its all over this March for Microsoft web browsers, Google said so.

Whatever Microsoft ends up doing about the browser, all I can say is, “it is your funeral.”

Come June 30, 2011, Microsoft will lack Office Suite and Operating System market share.

Thanks for hanging in there folks for the What Will We Use Browser and Operating Systems reports. In February, we had 1,691 unique readers. This is amazing considering that I have not had time to post much.

Nonetheless, Microsoft continues to creatively self-destruct. While Microsoft fails to sell Windows 7 to XP users, Apple’s market share picks up. How can Steve Ballmer justify his raise? I’m sorry but patent extortion of I-O Data’s Linux devices and Amazon’s Kindle are not work product. Meanwhile, Google’s Linux-based products grow market share exponentially. Google has not been sued because Google would not be the type to pay out of court. Is Microsoft turning into a litigation company? How did that strategy work out for the bankrupt SCO? As I already pointed out, being in court all of the time distracts Microsoft from making real technology that people actually want to use. If Microsoft could sell software on the open market profitably, why are they on the patent lawsuit FUD warpath?

Since Microsoft lost their own patent battle to the tune of $290 million to I4i over Word 2007, maybe they find it safer to sue other companies than make browsers, office suites, and operating systems. Go ahead Microsoft and mock Firefox’s success, you only look like jealous crybabies babies.

The writing is on the wall, Microsoft has lost in the long term. Gartner’s 2008 prediction of open source having majority market share in 2012 is really growing roots. Come June 30, 2011, Microsoft’s fate will be clear, until then, I will bring your my market share reports and other commentary.

This month I decided to compare my percentages to W3Counter, a no-cost analytic service that shares their global market share figures on a monthly basis.

We are worlds apart on the browser market share, but as far as the operating systems go, there are areas where we agree save Windows XP and Linux…

And now for the browsers…

What do you think world? What will March of 2010 hold in store for us on our journey to understand what will we use come June 30, 2011?

I have never met Mr. Starks, better known as Helios. Nor visited his educational charity, the HeliOS Project in Austin Texas. Yet, I was glad to be able to help. My job as a Linux system administrator, a debt-free life style, and great friends that I would have never met had I stayed loyal to Microsoft products have given me a life that is better that I deserve. Helios is an easy choice to invest in because he gives +1000% of himself to make free software available. When Helios gives away a computer because he believes it is a human right for a child to have such essential educational tool, more open source contributors are born. The census of non-Microsoft users will exponentially grow at a pace that tips the scale. On June 30, 2011 the change will be apparent.

Had Helios retired this summer, no one would blame him since he had already given back plenty.  Yet he steps it up a notch by giving back to his mentor., on his blog he writes…

I told them about how a global community came together and helped me heal from an illness that could have easily killed me.  I told them about a global effort to bring computing freedom to people who before now, had no idea they had a choice.

Open source is not just a methodology for releasing software for people like Helios and I. It is a way of life that we pay for by giving back in abundance with the resources we have to our avail. So, when Helios posted that the founder of the website that him understand Linux was dying, I was happy to help again. This way the website: brunolinux.com and the “Bruno Knaapen Technology Learning Center” will leave a legacy.

With open source, we all own the product of all of the contributions since the founding of UNIX in 1969. With Microsoft, one corporation owns the products such as Windows 7, Internet Explorer, or Office 2007. Quality software, when the code is freely available, lasts generations. Inferior software, when the code is proprietary, dies when the company who owns it no longer thinks it is profitable.

Many Microsoft products have died because they were no longer profitable to Microsoft. Here are some examples…

Microsoft Money was a household financial package. It has been replaced by online services such as mint.com, personal banking accounts with web access, Intuit products, Moneydance, and gnucash. All but Microsoft Money had options for MacOS and Linux users. Everyone is balancing their checkbooks without Microsoft. The world goes on.

Microsoft Encarta in its hay-day was the ultimate in hyper-linked encyclopedias. I even owned editions from the mid-nineties on CD. The release yearly paradigm is no longer useful in the information age. Going online, however, did not save Encarta, due to the popular community-contributed no-cost Wikipedia. One company could not hire enough writers and editors to compete with the Wikipedia’s massive almost 15 million article collection contributed by unpaid volunteers. The world is better served with over 200 languages without help from Microsoft.

Microsoft Works was Microsoft’s first office suite product combining a word processor, spreadsheet, and database. While Microsoft Office components such as Powerpoint can be purchased outside the suite bundle, Works was an all-or-nothing deal. While it came at a small enough price that computer manufactures could ship Works with a new computer, it could not compete with other office suites. While Works suffered from lacking a MacOSX version, Microsoft Office supports the modern Apple operating system. By favoring the more expensive product, Office, Microsoft customers will be looking elsewhere. In fact, Microsoft admits that OpenOffice.org is more powerful than Works.

As Microsoft product offerings decrease, the neighborhood of open source users increases. Each citizen of open source is doing their part when they they share with their friends, coworkers, and family the tools that have enriched their lives. Every contribution, no matter how small is an investment in a better world.

We will win. I promise.

Come June 30, 2011, the world will understand they do not need Microsoft.

Sorry for the lack of posts lately. It was not for lack of things to write about. Nor am I afraid of any trolls. Instead I had to pause to take care of something in my life that has nothing to do with the question of “What will we use on June 30, 2011?”

During this time, I have been able to reflect on my surroundings. I will give you one story from my time on the ground. While in a waiting room, I met a woman who saw my netbook with my ubuntu user sticker. She proudly told me that her home has been Microsoft-free for years. When I showed her this blog, she asked me what I thought of the Bill and Melinda Foundation’s recent contribution to Pittsburgh Public Schools. I thought about it and replied that IF this is an attempt to get more Microsoft in front of children, then $40 million in 2010 is  too little too late. You see, for about 30 years a local super market chain called “Giant Eagle” has been buying Apple products for schools in Western Pennsylvania and Ohio as a customer rewards program called “Apples for Students.” Bug one was never really an issue around here – not in the 1980’s and not today. When I graduated from Baldwin High School in a suburb of Pittsburgh, I used Netscape, Applewriter, and MacOS. It was not until my first college class in 1996 that I had Microsoft products in the classroom thanks to Giant Eagle’s Apples for Students.Was it a good marketing for Giant Eagle to bet against Microsoft? Right now I’m blogging about Giant Eagle and thanking them for caring about the education of generations of children. What will the Class of 2011 of Baldwin High use? Not Microsoft.

Al Gore using Apple and a Treo as seen in 2006: Photo taken by Steve Rhodes on Flickr

Almost a month ago I asked the ”what will we use” question of the former United States Senator and Vice President because he had the forsight to invest in Google instead of taking Bill Gates’ mobile computing promises to heart. I don’t blame him for being a little busy latey. In any case, I feel a little silly for asking because all of the answers are out there in the open.

It is true that Al Gore is on the Board of Directors at Apple. He was seen using MacOSX several times during the Inconvient Truth. This was a killer product plug in a film that won 2 Oscars which attracted so much global awareness that he won the Nobel Peace 2007 prize. Say what you want about his politics, Apple’s market share has sky rocketed ever since his 2006 documentary was released. Guess what, Apple’s market share is going to sky rocket in 2010.

Oh, quick point before I move on, Al Gore is also a senior advisor for Google due to his early investiment insight. Perhaps since his AAPL and GOOG stocks have been so profitable for him that the Inconvient Truth is available for free viewing on video.yahoo.com.

But the movie was 3 years ago, what does Al Gore use now? According to netcraft.com, algore.com uses Linux. Surely if Microsoft Windows was really “the new efficiency” he would have switched. Sorry Mr. Ballmer, the Linux grass is greener.

The case that Al Gore agrees with my market share prediction, “Microsoft will not have majority market share come June 30, 2011,” is growing. But wait, it gets better.

Al Gore was the keynote speaker at SuperComputing 2009: a gathering of the users of world’s fastest computers where Linux has dominiate market share. Al Gore sees SuperComputing to be the “killer application” for his climate research.

I think have an answer. Al Gore will use MacOSX on the desktop and Linux on the server. When netbooks with Google ChromeOS come out, maybe they will be so enegry efficient that Al Gore is seen using those too. What about that Treo? He’s likely using iPhone or Andriod by now. What is clear to me is that Al Gore does not do Microsoft.

Thank you Al Gore and God speed with your efforts to change the power grid market share by petitioning for Carbon-free electricity. ”What will we use” will continue to work to change the market share of Microsoft by petitioning for free software.

How about you, reader? What do you use? What will you use on June 30, 2011?

"Give Mac" says the tree at the Apple store

There happens to be an Apple store in South Hills Village Mall. I checked it out after photographing the Droid booth. For those who have never been to an Apple store, it is a place were one can go and buy all sorts of Apple computers, iPods, iPhones, MacOSX software. There you will find little kids (about 8 and below) playing games on Apple desktop.  For the big kids there are desktops and ipods you can actually use to see if you like it. If you buy an Apple computer, there is a “Genius Bar” full of Apple-trained experts who will sit with you and help you through your issue. They also have free in-store classes on how to use their software and hardware. This is why customers love Apple computers instead Windows… customer service. This particular Apple store was packed, presumably following the store tree’s directions “Give Mac.” With 48 cents of every dollar being spent on Apple in the desktop market, it makes me wonder, does Nick already owe me twenty dollars? If Apple gets 48 cents, then surely PC vendors who ship Linux could be getting at least two cents of the action. With Linux offerings from HP, Dell, and Lenovo, the big names are covered. Heck, it is not hard to find a eeePC running Linux if you really want one. How about Penguin Computing, Linux Certified, System 76, Zareason, and other countless Linux specialty or Linux friendly white box vendors? All of these companies would not be in business if there was no money to be made by competing with Microsoft. Once ChromeOS kicks in, it will be all over for Microsoft Windows.

No matter how you look at it, the gap on Microsoft’s market share is shrinking. What do you think readers? Does Nick already owe me $20?

Yesterday when I got home from the office supply store, my husband asked, “Do you want to go to the mall?” This time we went to South Hills Village Mall which is not the same mall where I picked up my Droid. Just three weeks ago, my Droid was purchased one day after its release. My husband lovingly realizes that I am thrilled by gadgets as some girls would be thrilled by jewellery and agreed to make it my birthday present. I am still wowed by the Droid. My husband suggested that we go to the Verizon store to see if there were any Droid accessories available. They were sold out. Within line of site to the Verizon store there is a Droid display which will be staffed every holiday weekend. Yes. A whole display just for one telephone product. There were many people who stopped by to play with the many Droids on display but all but one booth employee were too shy to pose as I excitedly took a photo with my Droid. The picture you see in this post was immediately uploaded to facebook and flickr.com. No need to sync the phone with my desktop at home. This is when I realized that I was already living in the cloud.
Cloud computing that is. Google stores my calendar and contacts so I do not need to worry about backing that up to my PC. Flickr.com, a Yahoo! site, stores my photos. Facebook makes it crazy easy to share my picture that I just took on my phone with all my friends… all of this without leaving the mall. The Droid is not exactly forthcoming about being a product built on Linux and to some, this is a good idea. Still, if they would mention Linux in even a quarter of their advertising and posters, they would be by far the single marketing campaign of Linux product: far beyond the tux500. Google, Motorola, and Verizon have marketed the Droid phone as the anti-iPhone. In one TV commercial they pointed out that Google encourages open development for its “market” of apps. This is important because it allows and even encourages individuals and even competitors like Yahoo! to make applications for the Android platform. Why not go on to boast that they are built on the stability of an 18-year old operating system called Linux? The power of the Android Linux open platform is the whole power behind DroidDoes. Think that this open source mobo-jumbo can not effect the consumer, why in the world won’t Apple let Google implement voice search? Anyhow, Android Linux phones will be holiday gift giving favourite. Want your own Droid? Get it dropped straight to your back yard. My mother has already bought a phone, the Android-based Moment because she is a loyal Sprint customer. I played with it for 5 minutes and it had many of the Droid features but it was slow in comparison. Mom still intends on buying two more Moments for her sister and her brother-in-law.

At least in one corner of the South Hills Village Mall, Microsoft lacks majority market share on November 28, 2009.

For a few months I have considered what my next phone will be. I knew that it had to be either Verizon, AT&T, or Sprint since other carriers do not have a good reputation for quality coverage in my area.

I also knew I wanted a SmartPhone which gave me several operating systems options (in order of 2qtr market share):
A. Nokia which runs a platform which is striving to be open source: Symbian OS, AT&T was the only carrier for them but I did not see any for sale at the store I visited.
B. Blackberry which runs the closed-source platform: RIM, was available in many models and carriers but the lack of availability of 3rd party applications kept me away.
C. iPhone which runs the BSD-based platform produced by Apple has a significant amount of popularity due to the App Store. I passed because I did not want something that was defective by design.
D. Microsoft Mobile based phones are around but decreasing in relevance. The reviews totally tank it.
E. Android is an Linux-based operating system from Google which is the most open Linux-based commercially available phone on the market is the one I picked because it seemed to have the most welcoming developer community.
F. Palm is currently in transition to the Linux-based OS called “Palm PRE.” I doubt that the developer community will keep up with the Android and iPhone communities.

On Saturday November 7, I went to the poshest shopping mall around town to make sure that my options were the best that money could buy. Let’s face it, I am a Linux enthusiast and the idea of buying a Linux phone had me thrilled. Decked out in my Google Open Source Programs Office t-shirt, I knew I was going Droid. The Motorola “Droid” model is the newest Android phone for the Verizon 3G Network. None the less, I had intended to go to all three stores: Verizon, AT&T and Sprint but there was not a Sprint store in that mall. At the AT&T store I observed no Microsoft phones but several iPhones for sale. There were not any customers there beside me at the AT&T store yet nobody tried to sell me an iPhone. It is like nobody cares about the iPhone anymore. Then I quickly moved onto Verizon store where there was a line of people just to touch one of the two Android phones they had on display. There was one Windows phone on display but everybody ignored it despite it being right next to the Droid. Since I already have a contract with Verizon, the process was simple. I gave my phone number and account PIN to the sales clerk and the Droid was mine. As an added bonus, the clerk explained that I would pay less than I was paying for my monthly service because I wanted to use gmail instead of a Microsoft Exchange email account. While my Droid was configured for my account, I continued to browse the store and ended up buying a mifi too which is a portable access point that does not care what operating system I use.

The Droid itself is amazing. What really knocks my socks off is the phone is tied in with Google Voice so I can make all of the calls I want for free without going into my calling minutes. It also ties in well with all sorts of software-as-a-service websites, not just Google’s cloud.

As I was using the Droid, it reminded me of Bill Gates’ Congressional testimony ten years ago….

I’ve waited for ten years for Bill Gates and Microsoft to deliver the innovation that was promised in the “not too distant future.” Ten years and 3 billion dollars later you have no product to show for it, Microsoft. I bought a product produced by Google, a company that will destroy Microsoft’s market share now through June 30, 2011. Should I wait for Microsoft to catch up? I am sorry Mr. Gates, I am afraid I can’t do that. I’ve already gone for the 2010 Linux Odyssey.

I continued to use PalmOS internet-less but was quickly bored. Then I moved onto the Sharp Zaurus, a Linux based PDA. With a $100 CF 802.11b card, the Zaurus could browse the web on a color screen as long as I was somewhere with a hotspot. But, in circa 2005, quality open wireless networks were few and far between.

To me, the Zaurus was just a toy that was tiding me over to that always connected voice-activated pocket computer Bill Gates promised to sink three billion dollars into producing. Sure, Microsoft had Windows Mobile 5 phones in 2005 but they really were more for corporate people who use Exchange email. Going with a glorified WindowsCE on a phone was not appealing as I had already experienced what that platform had to offer back in 1998. Back in those days, BlackBerry phones were eating up the corporate emailing phone market share keeping Microsoft uncompetitive.

There was only one pocket-internet device in the mid-2000’s that attempted to appeal to the gadget-geek in me: the PalmOS-based Treos. In January 2007, I bought a Treo 650 since I had heard horror stories on the just released iPhone. By and large, I was happy with the Blazer web browser, Google Maps for PalmOS, and an mp3 player. Sadly in January 2008, I dropped my phone cracking the screen. Wanting to stick my carrier, Verizon, I upgraded to a Treo 700p.

Until ten days ago, I was a faithful PalmOS-based Treo user. Recently, I got in the mood for something shinny and new. Google had just launched the Droid with Verizon and I was there day two on the market to pick mine up. I thought it was just another phone upgrade, instead I found that pocket voice activated information system that Bill Gates, the United States Congress, and I have been waiting for ten years now.

Microsoft had failed to implement their former CEO’s Congressional promise. Nor could Microsoft hold significant smartphone market share. In fact, Microsoft’s market share is less than 10% and on the decline. Only one brilliant visionary present at the 1999 Tech Summit who correctly predicted where all this was going and profited heavily from it: Vice President Al Gore invested in Google shortly afterward.

Mr. Gore, if you read this blog, would you kindly tell us what will we use on June 30, 2011?

Congratulations to Mackenzie Morgan, who is one of Ubuntu’s newest members of the “Masters of the Universe” MOTU team.

For those who do not know, Mackenzie is a co-editor of this blog. Even though she has not been writing lately, she has faithfully approved comments and made sure there were not any typos in the other authors’ articles. Also, Mackenzie has been with the “What Will We Use” mission from the very beginning because she witnessed the bet behind this blog.

Mackenzie’s new status as a MOTU is important because she will be formally responsible to screening and packaging software and other free content for the Ubuntu Universe archive. The content within “the universe” is available under the Ubuntu Software Center. Within the Ubuntu Software Center, a user can search for free applications by keyword, download, unpack, and install the software with any applicable dependencies and libraries, and setup the icons in the launcher all with a few clicks of the mouse. It is really a very simple user experience. Don’t take my word for it though, see it for yourself.

With the software provided within Ubuntu’s main, universe, and multiverse via Ubuntu Software Center, Ubuntu users receive high quality and virus-free software which is optimized for Ubuntu without any cost to the user. It makes the current paradigm of going to the computer software store to purchase a shrink-wrapped proprietary piece of software outdated, slow, expensive, and risky.

If you are a Microsoft or Apple user who still thinks Linux is not going to gain significant market share because you do not see shrink-wrapped boxes on the store shelves, consider the possibility that the reason why the software is not there is that the Linux community has found a better way of software delivery via the work of talented programmers such as Mackenzie Morgan. Still think shrink wrapped store bought software is more trustworthy? I challenge you to get a refund from either the store or the software vendor if you are dissatisfied by the quality standards of their product.