What Will We Use on June 30, 2011?

FUD is a Mexican brand of lunch meat and cheese: thanks to camerasutra on Flickr

A commenter a few posts back assertsthat I, Beth Lynn Eicher, give the Free and Open Source community a bad name because I said that Microsoft executes Fear-Uncertainty-Doubt. I could site example by example of where Microsoft spends their time, money, and energy saying bad things about Linux. That’s not what this post is about. Even if I were to make whatwillweuse.com a discussion on deli products instead of the decline of Microsoft, other bloggers would be out there telling that story.  Why in the world have I committed to writing about the decline of Microsoft until June 30, 2011? Well, I made a personal bet with my friend Nick that Microsoft would no longer have majority market share by that date. When I started blogging about the subject in June 2009, I had intended it to be a way for Nick and I to keep tabs on our bet to make it more interesting. I expected maybe a dozen or so mutual friends would get a chuckle out of it. Never would I expect that there would be over 17,500 spectators to the discussion six months later. Agree or disagree, people care about the prediction that there could be a world in the not to distant future with significantly less Microsoft software.

Sure, it would have been nice to be better known for my work with the Ohio LinuxFest and other FOSS volunteer work that I have done for the past ten years. Those who read this blog consistently know I do use this blog to resolve conflict within FOSS.  The debate on if and when Microsoft will fall is something that people want to read, regardless as to who is saying it. If that makes me an anti-Microsoft FUDer, then so be it, but by far I am not alone. The shoe fits. I wear it and advise Microsoft to do the same.

I am not the first to predict Microsoft’s demise with Linux to the better. Heck, I am not even the first to predict a dramatic drop in a 24 month period. Be sure to put Newsweek and Techblorge on your list of people who are calling doom for the software giant. What makes my prediction unique, is I allow you, the spectators of this $20 bet, participate in the discussion of what will we use on June 30, 2011. Now that is community.

Early on, Nick gave me several opportunities to back out.  I declined because I was really liking what I was hearing out of Microsoft.  I noticed them taking the time to fight Linux, which makes me wonder why they would do that if they did not perceive a potential for loss of market share. Moreover, for every moment that Microsoft fights with FUD, it brings Linux closer to winning. How does that work? Microsoft can not keep up with both open source and Apple.

The harder they fight the less resources they have to go into product. Customers are running away from Microsoft products. Everyday I see people dumping Windows for Linux or MacOSX. Even former Microsoft apologist, Don Dodge, has gone Google. From what I can see, Microsoft is shrinking. It would be to Microsoft’s benefit to get out of the FUD business and focus on selling out of Windows 7. That way it could be an example of a successful American company like Red Hat instead of General Motors.

So, please keep dishing the FUD, Microsoft. Meanwhile, consider the following…

Mark and Jane know how to rock the market: volume== 11. Photo credit: alternatePhotography

On August 20, 2004, Mark Shuttleworth filed the first trouble ticket that affects the Ubuntu Linux distribution:  “Microsoft has a majority market share.” This blog is based on the bet that this very issue will be resolved by June 30, 2011. On December 17, 2009, Mark Shuttleworth announced that he is stepping aside from being CEO of Cannonical, the sponsoring company of Ubuntu, and handing the reigns over to Jane Silber. Ubuntu User, an up-and-coming magazine specific to the community around the Ubuntu Linux distribution was the first to cover the story.

For most CEOs this would mean cashing out, retirement, or finding another company to found and/or lead. Instead, Mr. Shuttleworth is positioning to be even more intensely focused and committed on the vision in which he founded: making Ubuntu itself the best operating system. Ubuntu already offers an awesome user experience for both free software advocates and your typical home user. Once OEMs recognize the fact Ubuntu is superior to the Windows 7 operating system in value, quality, usability, and performance, Microsoft will lack majority market share. Mr. Shuttleworth is so excited he can taste it. Crank it to 11!

Taking the lead is Ms. Silber. Without question she is also very dedicated to resolving bug one. I include this circa 2008 video for point of reference.

Utimately, this is good news for Canonical, Ubuntu, and Linux. The popularity of Ubuntu is so great that Canonical must grow while focusing on the product quality. It is also good news for me since I am looking forward to collecting Nick’s $20. Nick emailed me privately because he sees the significance. Ubuntu is ready to rock the desktop market share.

I waited awhile to read the commentary from the rest of the media before posting. The response to this issue is overwhelming. If it is true that only 1% of the world’s desktops are Linux, then just for argument’s sake, let us say Ubuntu has about a third of that 1% at 0.33% of the global desktop market share.  Can someone tell me why Google has over 2,500,000 articles on the subject on who is going to be the next Canonical CEO?

As Mark Shuttleworth continues to reach for the stars, Jane Silber will lead Ubuntu through the journey.

Free power and free software are possible. We already own the resources. Let's make it happen. Photo Credit: Storm Crypt of Flickr

I believe it should be an obvious idea that clean air is good. Telling the world they want to breathe less pollutantsis a lot like telling everyone that free and open source software is in their best interest. Even though it seems like common sense to the believers, it is inconveniently inconsistent with the way of life in economic powerhouses like the United States.

Most computing environments contain an overwhelming quantity of Microsoft software. Even if the products we use every day are tainted, nobody wants to believe it. Instead users, even those who prefer open source, silently stick to status-quo. It’s easier to shell out $100 here and there to ignore the issue.

Open source software is an ideal which is competing against tangible products that come in shrink-wrapped boxes. All of the answers on how sharing code with your neighbor is commercially healthy are detailed in the 1985 GNU Manifesto. That was almost 25 years ago, why in the world does the political agenda of software freedom seem radical? The answer is that proprietary software companies have been pushing their counter-propaganda.

Even if you try to give people software that is free as in cost and code, you may be told NO due to Microsoft’s own propaganda:

FEAR Microsoft’s own code, even though they will not let you see it, is more secure because they have the best software development processes in place.

UNCERTAINITY If you use free software it is ripping off Microsoft who might sue one of these days.

DOUBT If you install free software, you may be paying more in the long run.

Together these tacticts are called FUD and Microsoft is king at it. Don’t believe me, ask wikipedia. 

Ultimately FUD is not marketing, it is propaganda. It is the equivalent of a political smear campaign were both sides are shouting loudly that the other side is BAD BAD BAD. People should expect that behavior out of free and open source software advocates like myself. But if Microsoft really is the brand that everyone trusts, tell me why does Microsoft would opt to fight instead of ignore?

In a way, watching Microsoft try to answer the question of “why not Linux” proves that the products that I prefer are relevant. Consider this: If Linux-based products were really only about 1% of the market share, why does Microsoft spend so many resources bringing themselves to level of political zealous for a political smear campaign? It is because when people are actually given the choice of Linux or Windows, 32% choose Linux. What would happen if Linux, Windows, and Apple were sold in the same place with comparable hardware? I bet that Microsoft would not be purchased 50% of the time come June 30, 2011.

Why do I think I will win that $20 in a political battle that is up against a corporation with a massive marketing budget? Microsoft is not too big to fail. They already tried that argument in 2006.

There are two ways in which a revolutionary paths that could change what we will use:

1. Disruptive Technology: The dominant market player is knocked into irrelevance due to the utter inferiority. Killer applications emerge. Users drop everything for the more fun products.

2. House of Cards: The dominant market player does something so offensive to the general population that all trust is lost. Collapse is its own doing. The exposure of the offensive action can be triggered by outside political forces or internal mistakes. Either way, the structure is unsustainable.

This is Beth Lynn Eicher, the Editor-in-Chief of “What will we use,”  a political forum in favor of software freedom. If you wish to respond to the contents of this message, you may do so in the comments.

Al Gore using Apple and a Treo as seen in 2006: Photo taken by Steve Rhodes on Flickr

Almost a month ago I asked the ”what will we use” question of the former United States Senator and Vice President because he had the forsight to invest in Google instead of taking Bill Gates’ mobile computing promises to heart. I don’t blame him for being a little busy latey. In any case, I feel a little silly for asking because all of the answers are out there in the open.

It is true that Al Gore is on the Board of Directors at Apple. He was seen using MacOSX several times during the Inconvient Truth. This was a killer product plug in a film that won 2 Oscars which attracted so much global awareness that he won the Nobel Peace 2007 prize. Say what you want about his politics, Apple’s market share has sky rocketed ever since his 2006 documentary was released. Guess what, Apple’s market share is going to sky rocket in 2010.

Oh, quick point before I move on, Al Gore is also a senior advisor for Google due to his early investiment insight. Perhaps since his AAPL and GOOG stocks have been so profitable for him that the Inconvient Truth is available for free viewing on video.yahoo.com.

But the movie was 3 years ago, what does Al Gore use now? According to netcraft.com, algore.com uses Linux. Surely if Microsoft Windows was really “the new efficiency” he would have switched. Sorry Mr. Ballmer, the Linux grass is greener.

The case that Al Gore agrees with my market share prediction, “Microsoft will not have majority market share come June 30, 2011,” is growing. But wait, it gets better.

Al Gore was the keynote speaker at SuperComputing 2009: a gathering of the users of world’s fastest computers where Linux has dominiate market share. Al Gore sees SuperComputing to be the “killer application” for his climate research.

I think have an answer. Al Gore will use MacOSX on the desktop and Linux on the server. When netbooks with Google ChromeOS come out, maybe they will be so enegry efficient that Al Gore is seen using those too. What about that Treo? He’s likely using iPhone or Andriod by now. What is clear to me is that Al Gore does not do Microsoft.

Thank you Al Gore and God speed with your efforts to change the power grid market share by petitioning for Carbon-free electricity. ”What will we use” will continue to work to change the market share of Microsoft by petitioning for free software.

How about you, reader? What do you use? What will you use on June 30, 2011?

The French roll down the Champs-Élysées with Thunderbird in their arsenal

We have only 575 days until Microsoft’s market share crumbles. Some may call me crazy since even more favorable market share counters like w3counter list Linux market share hovering close to 2% and MacOSX close to 7.5%. Why do I maintain big and bold claim that Nick will pay me $20 when Microsoft no longer has majority market share as soon as two summers from now?

Nick is scared he will lose the $20. It’s true. He has emailed me privately to try to back-out of the bet. The game has been changed by Google’s ChromeOS.  With a fast power-on to browser promise, ChromeOS is going to completely destroy the paradigm of what a computer really is.

All sorts of software-as-a-service applications will be at your finger tips in seconds after sitting down in front of your ChromeOS system. Meanwhile, Windows 7 will make minutes feel like an eternity in comparison while installing those updates before you are even allowed to login.

But what will be the “killer application”  that makes everyone drop exactly what they are using an go ChromeOS? Everybody just wants to get to the top three internet websites we all use now.

1. Google for search, Google docs, and gmail.
2. Facebook for social networking and games.
3. Yahoo! for search, mail, games, news, and flickr.

Nick fears that the Internet itself will be the killer app to bring Microsoft to tremble.

A killer application makes everyone drop the tool that they are using because another brand’s troll brings a more attractive results. Everyone could see why 8-bit gaming was more fun than Atari’s games with Ninendo released Super Mario Brothers, the most sold game record for over 15 years. It caused people to not care if they owned a gazillion Atari cartridges already, Nintendo was where all of the serious gamers were. Then, everyone wanted Mario and Nintendo-branded games, even those who owned zero home video game consoles. Nick fears that everyone will want ChromeOS and Linux systems in order to get to the internet faster than what Microsoft can offer.

The truth of the matter is Gandhi-Con4 has already started.  Brazil, the 10th largest world economy and growing, dumped Microsoft in favor of Linux years ago in a desire for transparency and has been tickeled pink ever since. The French Army just quit Outlook in favor of the open source email client, Thunderbird. It does not stop there, remember, countries in every corner of the world have ordered One-Laptop-Per-Child netbooks that run Linux. Tax-payers of the world will see this trend and get sick and tired of seeing that Microsoft is on their corporate welfare dole.

With killer applications abound, Microsoft will not hold majority market share come June 30, 2011.

circle of friends by PixelPlacebo in Flickr

I believe in something that Stephen Covey calls the “Circle of Influence.” Even though I am only one person, when I need something really important accomplished, I start with the areas of my life that I can personally change. By choice I stopped using Microsoft Office on computers I personally own in 2003. I was using MacOSX on the desktop then and with Microsoft Office. It annoyed me because its default behavior annoyed me because visited links in Power Point would not be visable in slideshow mode. There were other reasons, but I stopped using MacOSX around that time too. The tools I was using on my other computer that ran Fedora such as OpenOffice.org were far easier anyhow. I have never used Microsoft Office 2007. One time I tried to do a quick edit on someone else’s computer but I gave up on trying to use that Ribbon thing after about 5 minutes. I am a technology person and if I can not use a Microsoft product it must be seriously broken. Again, I am only one person and not a market share indicator.

I’ve asked around about office suite use. Almost everyone who had a choice in the matter is not using Microsoft Office 2007. Some have stayed put with older versions of Office. A few have moved onto OpenOffice.org, Google Docs, or Apple’s office suite called “iWork.” There are sectors in the United States, like the legal profession, who never quit using Word Perfect. Lotus Notes is still out there too. In my travels I have only found one person who prefered Microsoft Office 2007 above all other office suites. However, he admitted that he would not use Microsoft anything if he had to pay full price. Through some soft of employer-specific discount, he was using a copy he bought for $15.

Last night I attended a club meeting for general computer users. They know I am a Linux fan. I gave out copies of The OpenDisc which contains open source software for Windows, including OpenOffice.org. People were confused by my motives but joyfully accepted the gift anyhow. People were very happy that they will not have to buy a product costing hundreds of dollars just to open a document created with Microsoft Office. It makes me wonder how many people break down and buy Microsoft Office because they think they do not have a choice.

Some people only like OpenOffice.org because it can be obtained cheaply. People sell it on ebay for $9 or less. I’m OK with that. I would rather people use OpenOffice.org because it is an quality open source project that listens to user feedback. Instead I suspect that some people assume Open Office is pirated and therefore decline the option to register. That I am not OK with.

All the people who created OpenOffice.org ask from its users is some indication that people are actually using it. I too would appreciate it because I have a $20 bet to win. Without any money-oriented transaction to confirm that the license was accepted, how else will we calculate market share?

Charles-H. Schulz of the OpenOffice.org marketing team wrote a long article on the problem of counting office suite market share. Here is an except for consideration…

By this I mean that we’re having clear indications and reports that not only do people download OpenOffice.org but that they stop using Microsoft Office altogether. Of course this last trend -abandoning MS Office- is not going to be witnessed soon, for two reasons: MS Office’s market share is accounted by entreprise sales and by OEM bundling. Because Microsoft’s domination is encroached on well-known monopolistic practices, we are often put in the situation where market shares ‘ comparison ends up very much like comparing apples and bananas: The office suite market is a Microsoft Office market, with different slices owned by different pedigrees of Microsoft Office, while any outside incumbet is left at the fringe as the calculation method ignores downloads and values “entreprise sales” and OEM contracts.

It is a difficult problem but I will not give up. I will continue to pass out copies of The OpenDisc to Windows users without ever knowing if people will throw the disks in the trash. There is a possibility that people think I am trying to give them a virus because I do not use professionally pressed media. That is under consideration although it would be time consuming and expensive. I am als considering switching to DVD-RW as well, that way the new owner of the OpenDisc may choose to keep it since it has a little more value. Ideally, I would like to find a bunch of other folks who will also help distribute the OpenDisc upon professionaly pressed media.

Until we work out the details of the distribution program, I will ship anyone a free OpenDisc copy to anyone who expresses interest by responding to this post.

If we put our heads together, by June 30, 2011, Microsoft Office will not have majority market share.

Gorilla

Originally uploaded by just4u2009

In addition to my quest to reach out to the general public, I desire to have discussion with the 800 pound Gorilla in the room.

So far I have been using the wwwuse twitter account to try to engage in discussion. No replies but it is still early yet. I am interested in a real honest to goodness fair and public debate.

We may not agree, Microsoft. Some may fear you due to your size and reputation. Many have ignored you with disgust for years. I do not. Instead I respectfully challenge your ability to be relevant for very much longer.

Jim Zemlin of Linux Foundation has said, “IDC already restated their growth forecast upwards for Linux due to the recession and I would expect analyst research to surface an even greater growth spurt for Linux over the last couple years as they get better at accounting for unpaid Linux and open source use. Linux provides better value than Windows, and in tough times this difference makes all the difference.”

Yet Steve Ballmer said “And because Windows 7 improves productivity, it offers the potential to increase billable time for mobile workers at a rate of nearly $600 per PC. This could return the equivalent of one-half of one percent of the company’s current gross annual revenue to the bottom line.”

Can you please explain how you believe that Microsoft Windows saves the customer money when you charge hundreds in licensing fees? Please contrast this “savings” with the cost of deploying a Linux desktop at no licensing fees.

Thank you very much.

In many ways, I am the exception, not the rule.

I am an American which puts me in 4.53% of the world’s population.

I am over 25 years old with a Bachelor’s degree which puts me with 27.4% of my nation’s most educated adults.

I prefer Linux, which some say put me at 1% of the computer user population. My assertion is the 1% is bogus, but that’s not what this post is about.

This post is about how I seek to reach out to the general public. I struggle with this because I am the exception not the rule. Many of my friends involved with Linux and free and open source software have pointed this out to me. This needs to change. Geek girl meet world. Here I come.

Yesterday was an exceptional day for this blog as 508 new visitors showed up, mostly due to clicking on a link back to this blog I left on the Bing blog. Still, Internet Explorer could not muster up even 5% of my website readers.

If my post to the bing blog makes me an Internet troll, I will own that. It is my intention to encourage people to at least image a world with significantly less Microsoft. Let’s just pretend, for one moment, that all Internet Explorer installations were to vanish. What would we use? How many people would panic and believe that the Internet itself had died? Five percent? Maybe Sixty percent? highly unlikely.

Just to be clear, I am not suggesting that all Internet Explorer users would panic. Also, I assert that many Internet Explorer users may toggle to Firefox based on their mood. All I am saying is that Internet Explorer is not the be-all-end-all of the Internet in the hearts and mind of the majority of the general population.

In order to prove that the world can live with significantly less Microsoft, I need to reach out to the general public. This is why I signed up for Twitter. Do not worry if you are a fan of free software as I will continue to explain why non-proprietary software is better. Hopefully the choir is still with me and will sing with me.

Ultimately, I want people to question their software choices and understand they have a choice. How do I do that with out being elitist or a troll?

The short answer is that it is the default search engine of Internet Explorer. This outage made people realize, at least for 40 minutes, that there are tools out there other than Microsoft.

The claim that Microsoft has majority market share within the browser market is a myth that I have been silently collecting data to debunk. In this post I will reveal some of the reasons I see this as true and discuss the Bing/Internet Explorer market share connection. When you ask people what is the best browser, people seem to vote for Firefox hands-down. Yet, month after month, browser market share reports come out and the results are all over the charts but always in favour of Internet Explorer. The Counter reports just shy of 70%. W3counter reports just a little north of 51%. Meanwhile, “Market Share” by Net Applications reports 63.63% for November yet it has been shedding 1% for many months now. The Counter, W3Counter, and Market Share by Net Applications are analytics services that tell website owners who is visiting their site.

Quick tanget and un-paid endourcement…

Only W3Counter offers this service cost-free as only as you have only one site to watch that get less than 5,000 page views a day. Since W3counter is so accessible to anybody with a website, I declared W3Counter the official market share report of this blog. I was so impressed that I opted to pay for their pro $39.95 per 6 month account even though I already pre-paid for two years of Google Analytics. I prefer the way that W3Counter parses the data for me and how it integrates well with Wordpress, the open source blogging software that runs whatwillweuse.com. If you are using anything else other than W3Counter, please give them a try.

OK, back to Internet Explorer and Bing.

A common market share assertion I hear when it comes to operating system and web browser market share is “Microsoft’s market share is high because that is what came with the computer and people do not switch due to interia.”

People just use what is there. To a certain extent, I will have to agree with that point. But if most people just used what Microsoft put in front of them, I would expect far more than 8% search market share out of Bing, the default search on Internet Explorer. Yahoo! Fiance reports that Bing’s market share is shrinking. Why would people choose to not use a product that they did not have to pay for and is delivered to them from the very first time they turn on their computer?

Change is risky and fearsome, especially those new to computer. Despite the fact that Internet Explorer 6 is an eight years old browser, 12.57% of the web browsing population still uses it. That is why Internet Explorer 6 has one thing going for it though, those with Windows XP have had it installed by default. A Vista system that keeps up with patches runs Internet Explorer 8 and this is why it has a respectable market share at 21.21%. Meanwhile there are 17.36 running Internet Explorer 7. I do not know how Microsoft can deliver a competitve free as in cost product while maintaining all of these versions. Even though Microsoft is working on releasing Internet Explorer 9, they are obligated to continue to support Internet Explorer 6,  a product. Together these numbers add up to 51.14% although only 8 percent, and shrinking, are using IE browser’s default search engine.

I assert three things given the interita theory…

Go Chrome

1. Microsoft Internet Explorer users are primarily using Google and Yahoo! instead. When they visit http://www.google.com they are greeted with an invitation to download Chrome. At least 2% will take Google up on the offer and push Internet Explorer below 50% in less than three months.

2. Perhaps 8% bing usage is a reflection of how many people prefer Microsoft’s products, given the choice. Maybe these Internet Explorer users are small businesses who lack full time IT staff who have permission to install software like web browsers. They may use Internet Explorer in the office because they have to but at home they use Firefox because they want to. Web analytics services that release market share reports will give more merit to the 8 hours of the day that people have opportuntiy to use the browser at their desk instead of the 3 hours of the day they might be able to use their browser at home. This would also explain why people overwhelmingly vote for Firefox when asked about their browser of choice yet market share reports continute to favour Internet Explorer.

3. Those 8% loyal Microsoft customers saw Microsoft not deliver a service that they are pouring millions of dollars in American TV ads to support. They were left asking themselves the question, “what will we use?” and the answer, according to Internet Explorer and Bing, was Yahoo!

Come February 28, 2010, Microsoft will no longer have browser market share.

What will we use now has a twitter account: wwwuse

The amount of links that people have sent me over private email and facebook have been overwhelming. If you have breaking news to bring to our attention, please leave it in the comments or tweet it. Please tag things that talk about Microsoft’s market share as #wwwuse or put it to our attention with @wwwuse.

EDIT: Or @bethlynn if on Identi.ca