What Will We Use on June 30, 2011?

Like Bill Gates, I too coveted mobile hardware that I could connect to all of my favorite online resources. Ten years ago I was low on cash since I was a college junior who was still living with Mom. At the end of that summer, I bought my first Linux desktop with what little I could earn from the internship. Surely I thought that Mr. Gates would beat me to it, with the 3 billion he swore he would spend on making such a device.

Two years later, I went back to full time work. Then I decided to buy the best solution that I could afford: a Samsung SCH 3500. This thing had a “microbrowser.” Microbrowser did not even begin to describe the experience of trying to experience the world wide web via a 1″ monochrome LCD. Most websites, were downright painful to use but Yahoo! had made their search, maps, and email usable: as long as you could tolerate numberpad word-bubblesort text entry.  The data was crazy expensive too with no monthly quota. The cool thing is that you could tether it with a Handspring Visor with PalmOS. When the Samsung and the Handspring were connected, you could use the phone as a serial modem to dial out to any dialup isp. On the wonderful 3 inch monochrome Handspring screen, I could browse the web and even IRC with with the sudo-handwriting PalmOS Graffiti. Sure it was ugly but it was bleeding edge. Microsoft was no where to be found in this market space in 2002. Yahoo! was doing software as a service on the mobile platform long before Google was even dreaming about it.

I really loved this hardware. Sadly the Samsung died in 2004 and I moved on to other phones, continuing to covet the dream of voice-activated computing which would give me access to all of my information in my pocket.

Five years after Bill Gates’ fateful promise, Microsoft still lacked any market in software-as-a-service voice-activated pocket computing area. Likewise, on June 30, 2011, Microsoft will lack majority market share.

On June 15, 1999 Bill Gates testified before the United States Congress via the Joint Economic Committee at an event called “The High-Tech Summit.” The propose of this event was for the Congress to learn about where the future of computing was going. At the time, Senator Rick Santorum was the Joint Economic Committee. Senator Satorum invited me and four other student interns at Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center to prepare questions for Mr. Gates. At Mr. Gates’ request, we prepared ten questions in advance in which Mr. Gates and/or his staff would select. I specifically recall that there were questions that mentioned Linux but those were not selected. Instead, Mr. Gates was most interested in telling the American government and people how Microsoft was going to be a major player the future of computing. The full transcript is available at microsoft.com.

Ten years later I find something particularly insightful that Mr.
Gates predicted…

“Wherever you are, you’ll be able to access your own digital
dashboard — the set of information that you care about on any screen,
from a PC to that small pocket device. Microsoft and thousands of other
companies are advancing the software that makes this possible. We’ll
spend next year about $3 billion on research and development. One day
in the not-too-distant future that software will allow computers to
see, to listen, and to speak. At home or in the office, you’ll be able
to talk to your PC, to dictate a document or to simply ask for the
information that you care about.”

On November 7, 2009, I purchased that very device that finally lives up to the promise of true hand-held voice-activated computing which delivers all of the information I care about: I bought a Verizon Google Android Motorola phone.

Twelve years after Bill Gates’ fateful testimony at the High-Tech Summit, Microsoft will lack majority market share.