What Will We Use on June 30, 2011?

Yesterday was Groundhog Day. It is a fun American tradition where a large rodent from Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania “whispers” in his caretakers ear to declare early spring or six more weeks of winter on each year of February 2. Everybody knows that winter has to end. Most want winter to end soon, save those who enjoy snow-related sports. We all logically know that a groundhog has no control over the weather, yet these predictions are followed by millions of Americans with hope for sunny days ahead.

Today, I, a life-long Pennsylvania resident I declare early victory with 1/3 of the bet behind this blog: Microsoft will no longer have majority market share on June 30, 2011.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Microsoft no longer has a majority browser market share.

W3Counter watched the traffic of the 32,245 customer websites for the 31 days of January 2010 and reported 49.7% Internet Explorer use. I knew this day was afoot and I predicted IE’s demise at the end February 2010 two months ago. Thanks to all of you who signed up for a free w3counter account, we all get the best global market share reports.

Dan Grossman of W3Counter, also of Pennsylvania, put together these beautiful graphs that show the trends specific to Microsoft Internet Explorer’s demise. Observe the users of the legacy product, Internet Explorer 6 declining over time and look how other Microsoft products fail to directly answer the version 6 loss.

As far as browsers go, the “what will we use” question has been answered: Open source browsers such as Firefox and Chrome seem to be taking Microsoft’s market share. GandhiCon 4 here we come.

Sure, I am a crazy Linux using, free software loving, groundhog watching, winter loathing, anti-Microsoft FUD spreading, Pennsylvanian who correctly predicted browser market share.

I have never met Mr. Starks, better known as Helios. Nor visited his educational charity, the HeliOS Project in Austin Texas. Yet, I was glad to be able to help. My job as a Linux system administrator, a debt-free life style, and great friends that I would have never met had I stayed loyal to Microsoft products have given me a life that is better that I deserve. Helios is an easy choice to invest in because he gives +1000% of himself to make free software available. When Helios gives away a computer because he believes it is a human right for a child to have such essential educational tool, more open source contributors are born. The census of non-Microsoft users will exponentially grow at a pace that tips the scale. On June 30, 2011 the change will be apparent.

Had Helios retired this summer, no one would blame him since he had already given back plenty.  Yet he steps it up a notch by giving back to his mentor., on his blog he writes…

I told them about how a global community came together and helped me heal from an illness that could have easily killed me.  I told them about a global effort to bring computing freedom to people who before now, had no idea they had a choice.

Open source is not just a methodology for releasing software for people like Helios and I. It is a way of life that we pay for by giving back in abundance with the resources we have to our avail. So, when Helios posted that the founder of the website that him understand Linux was dying, I was happy to help again. This way the website: brunolinux.com and the “Bruno Knaapen Technology Learning Center” will leave a legacy.

With open source, we all own the product of all of the contributions since the founding of UNIX in 1969. With Microsoft, one corporation owns the products such as Windows 7, Internet Explorer, or Office 2007. Quality software, when the code is freely available, lasts generations. Inferior software, when the code is proprietary, dies when the company who owns it no longer thinks it is profitable.

Many Microsoft products have died because they were no longer profitable to Microsoft. Here are some examples…

Microsoft Money was a household financial package. It has been replaced by online services such as mint.com, personal banking accounts with web access, Intuit products, Moneydance, and gnucash. All but Microsoft Money had options for MacOS and Linux users. Everyone is balancing their checkbooks without Microsoft. The world goes on.

Microsoft Encarta in its hay-day was the ultimate in hyper-linked encyclopedias. I even owned editions from the mid-nineties on CD. The release yearly paradigm is no longer useful in the information age. Going online, however, did not save Encarta, due to the popular community-contributed no-cost Wikipedia. One company could not hire enough writers and editors to compete with the Wikipedia’s massive almost 15 million article collection contributed by unpaid volunteers. The world is better served with over 200 languages without help from Microsoft.

Microsoft Works was Microsoft’s first office suite product combining a word processor, spreadsheet, and database. While Microsoft Office components such as Powerpoint can be purchased outside the suite bundle, Works was an all-or-nothing deal. While it came at a small enough price that computer manufactures could ship Works with a new computer, it could not compete with other office suites. While Works suffered from lacking a MacOSX version, Microsoft Office supports the modern Apple operating system. By favoring the more expensive product, Office, Microsoft customers will be looking elsewhere. In fact, Microsoft admits that OpenOffice.org is more powerful than Works.

As Microsoft product offerings decrease, the neighborhood of open source users increases. Each citizen of open source is doing their part when they they share with their friends, coworkers, and family the tools that have enriched their lives. Every contribution, no matter how small is an investment in a better world.

We will win. I promise.

Come June 30, 2011, the world will understand they do not need Microsoft.

When I was laid off in 2007, I felt dismayed and lost as I took my cardboard box of personal items on the bus ride home. I was so distraught, I got onto the wrong route. The bus driver had took pity on me and rode me home anyhow after noticing me still on the bus at the end of the line. When home that afternoon, I sent out an email blast to about a dozen friends then went to sleep. The next day my phone rang off the hook with all sorts of opportunities. While I already had something lined up, it was really comforting to know there where hundreds of folks pulling together for me. Neighbors look out for the good citizens, not just the rock stars.

That is when I realized, open source users are a little more close-knit than a community, we share a way of life with those around us. Even those we have never met, we care about each other and we care about the rest of the world too, even Microsoft Windows users. The Bill and Melinda Foundation has incredible monetary wealth but they do not have the ability to be there in the time of need to every Microsoft customer who caused their wealth. On the other hand, those who contribute to open source have a neighbors who care no matter where you live. We will be there when it comes to free software help and we will be there when the real trials of life get tough.

Why would people be so giving? The foundation of open source is belonging. Everyone to the hardest working contributor to the new user is equally entitled to their license. You do not need to pay thousands of dollars, go to a certain school, work for the right employer, or live in the right country. Open source is a free gift to all. Like grace, those who receive it want to share it. We stand together as neighbors living everywhere changing the world where we live.

We have spread out globally. Our seeds have been planted. The harvest is June 30, 2011. Just in time for Jon maddog Hall’s 5-10 year world domination prediction to come true.

One such neighbor is Ken Starks who founded the HeliOS Project. Out of Austin Texas while Micheal Dell has made a fortune from selling Windows and Linux systems, Mr. Starks changes lives by giving away Linux desktops to over a thousand families in his community. Since this is someone who is giving all he can to his non-profit efforts, he did not have enough for medical bills when he collapsed this summer. As good neighbors, we did provide. Here is the outcome in the words of Mr. Starks…

“There is no Linux Community. The best we’ve achieved is in forming warring factions that use the vast real estate of the Internet to wage bloody war against each other.”

Recent events, prior to my illness have changed my mind and I publicly apologized for such foolish thoughts.

But this…this outpouring of Love and Concern and Compassion. It has driven me both to tears and to my knees in thanks…in gratitude and in humility. As much as I profess to being a writer, there are no words, no means of expression to convey my thanks to the hundreds of people that helped me. And trust me…it was needed.

Giant Eagle has been giving Apple computers to schools because it is the right thing to do.  The business of selling groceries has nothing to do with computers or educating children but they do it for the good will of the community.

The woman I met in the waiting room mentioned to me that Windows 7 lacks DOS support. She also claimed that Windows XP-backward support is only provided with a those with a license for XP for use with virtualization. More Microsoft products to buy! Microsoft confirms it all here.

While Microsoft wants you to stop using all of your applications and games written for DOS or Windows XP, Windows system programmers are supposed to port all of their BAT scripts to “PowerShell.” I borrowed a Windows 7 machine to verify this for myself. Here is a screenshot.

As a professional system administrator, I hereby tell Microsoft that the PowerShell innovation is too little too late. Why would I leave Linux for Windows 7? Bash, Perl, Python, GCC… these are all open source are basic part of Linux to customize my environment and script my operating system.  Ever since 1995, an open source program called Cygwin has been bringing all of these programming tools to Windows users.  Open Source has been compensating for the inadequacies of the Microsoft-provided environment because it is the right thing to do. Fifteen years later Microsoft thinks I will be satisfied with PowerScript: a closed-source .Net-based development environment that is not even backwards-compatible with DOS BAT. No thanks Microsoft.

The good news for Microsoft users who need DOS compatibility brought to you by Open Source, not Microsoft. If this is you, check out DOSBox, FreeDOS, and VirtualBox.

Thank you to open source contributors doing the right thing and helping Windows users where Microsoft fails their own customers. You are doing the right thing.

When Microsoft’s market share is less than 50% come June 30, 2011, open source will continue to be here to support Microsoft’s legacy applications.

Update: I assumed that Powershell was a closed source Microsoft-only shell-based scripting language. I stand corrected. Again, with the power of open source AND bash, Linux, MacOSX, legacy Windows, and mobile Windows users can use Powershell on their systems with pash: http://pash.sourceforge.net/

Microsoft can no longer hold a monopoly over even their own proprietary environments.

Sorry for the lack of posts lately. It was not for lack of things to write about. Nor am I afraid of any trolls. Instead I had to pause to take care of something in my life that has nothing to do with the question of “What will we use on June 30, 2011?”

During this time, I have been able to reflect on my surroundings. I will give you one story from my time on the ground. While in a waiting room, I met a woman who saw my netbook with my ubuntu user sticker. She proudly told me that her home has been Microsoft-free for years. When I showed her this blog, she asked me what I thought of the Bill and Melinda Foundation’s recent contribution to Pittsburgh Public Schools. I thought about it and replied that IF this is an attempt to get more Microsoft in front of children, then $40 million in 2010 is  too little too late. You see, for about 30 years a local super market chain called “Giant Eagle” has been buying Apple products for schools in Western Pennsylvania and Ohio as a customer rewards program called “Apples for Students.” Bug one was never really an issue around here – not in the 1980’s and not today. When I graduated from Baldwin High School in a suburb of Pittsburgh, I used Netscape, Applewriter, and MacOS. It was not until my first college class in 1996 that I had Microsoft products in the classroom thanks to Giant Eagle’s Apples for Students.Was it a good marketing for Giant Eagle to bet against Microsoft? Right now I’m blogging about Giant Eagle and thanking them for caring about the education of generations of children. What will the Class of 2011 of Baldwin High use? Not Microsoft.

Yet another amazing month as December brought in 5,170 new visitors with over 18,000 visitors in total.

Before I get started, I need to apologize that the commenter browser/OS detection plug-in, Browser Sniff, has been reporting falsely for Chrome-based browsers and Windows 7. I use with w3counter for my monthly reports which has nothing to do with Browser Sniff. Rest assured, the reports from w3counter are right on. Just to be sure, I also subscribe to Google Analytics and the numbers line up, month after month.

My preference for web analytic service and market share reports is w3counter. If you have a website and you would like to have some no-cost information on your visitors, sign up for w3counter. Nor do you you need a fancy website, programming skills, or your own domain name. If you can paste one line of html/javascript into your index.html, you too can use w3counter. Everybody can do this. This is another unpaid endorsement from a very happy w3counter customer.

Now onto the browser report of the whatwillweuse.com visitors for the month of December 2009

1     Firefox 3.5      68%
2     Firefox 3.0     13%
3     Internet Explorer 8.0 4%
4     Mozilla 1.9 3%
5     Safari 4.0 2%
6     Chrome 4.0 2%
7     Chrome 3.0 1%
8     Internet Explorer 7.0 1%
9     Identification Blocked 1%
Less than 1% goes to Internet Explorer 6.0

And the Operating System Report of visitors of whatwillweuse.com

1      Windows XP 28%
2     Windows Vista 18%
3     Windows 7 18%

The top 3 make 64%. Where are you team Linux and Apple?

4     Linux 17%
5     Mac OS X 14%
6     Unknown 3%
Less than 1% goes to Windows 2003, iPhone OSX, Windows 2000, iPhone OSX, Windows 2000 and Android. One sole FreeBSD user. Zero ChromeOS visitors yet.

Note: If you read whatwillweuse.com through RSS or a planet feed, your visit is not recorded. Only those who browse whatwillweuse.com are recorded. Therefore, in order to be counted, please type http://whatwillweuse.com at your browser at least once a month. Link-love is always appreciated. Thanks!

Click on the W3Counter logo to see the Browser/Operating system global report for December 2009. Note that the IE global market share is 50.3% according to w3counter. Soon enough, Microsoft will no longer have claim to majority browser market share.

This website and associated services has cost me over $350 for the full 2 years of service. I admit that it is a little silly

Some cold days ahead for Microsoft, thanks to radix999 on flickr

over a $20 bet. When some people make predictions, they say something without ever expecting any accountability. By being as public as possible, I have the opportunity to document the process. I celebrate both the journey and the eventual victory. Some people fly to Las Vegas for March Madness to place a wager on their favorite teams where the wager itself costs more than the trip. No matter how this goes, Nick and I are having a blast along the way.

Discussing the fate of Microsoft been so much fun, one commenter we only know as darryl wants in on the action. My hesitation is not about the money I will not bet you, darryl, 1000 United States dollars because I do not know you. Moreover, your IP address suggests you are from Australia so I don’t know how we could set up such an arrangement. By the way, you never answered my question regarding if you are a Microsoft employee.

In any case, this is my counter offer. I buy 33 shares of Red Hat. You buy 66 shares of Microsoft. Since both companies stock prices are about $30/share, we will accomplish the same idea as your proposal without ever having to meet.

For the record, I never said that Microsoft is evil. It is actually a little said says I, a Microsoft user since 1992 and a Linux user since 1999. Microsoft used to make products which made customers happy. That all changed with Vista. Without Bill Gates, Microsoft has been sinking in turbulent seas. So what is Microsoft doing about it? They’re hiring a “Competitive Marketing Manager.” and strangely, I meet the qualifications. Should I apply?

Nah… I will just stick to my wacky prediction:

Come June 30, 2011, Microsoft will no longer have majority market share.

Since I am footing the hosting bill of whatwillweuse.com, I invite you, the reader, to make your own technology prediction for 2010-2011 on my hosting dime by leaving a comment in this post. I promise to continue to host this post until at least January 4, 2012 to see what happens just for fun.

Here are some examples to get you started…

What will happen with the mobile market?

Will MySQL fork?

What will the clouds look like a year from now?

Will Steve Ballmer be fired?

How far will Apple’s market share grow?

I predicted last month that W3Counter would deliver a less-than-50% IE use on the February 2010 report thus winning 1/3 of the bet.

As I close this post, I wish to toast Microsoft itself, as your Windows have seen better days but bravo for shipping Windows 7 before calendar 2010….

FUD is a Mexican brand of lunch meat and cheese: thanks to camerasutra on Flickr

A commenter a few posts back assertsthat I, Beth Lynn Eicher, give the Free and Open Source community a bad name because I said that Microsoft executes Fear-Uncertainty-Doubt. I could site example by example of where Microsoft spends their time, money, and energy saying bad things about Linux. That’s not what this post is about. Even if I were to make whatwillweuse.com a discussion on deli products instead of the decline of Microsoft, other bloggers would be out there telling that story.  Why in the world have I committed to writing about the decline of Microsoft until June 30, 2011? Well, I made a personal bet with my friend Nick that Microsoft would no longer have majority market share by that date. When I started blogging about the subject in June 2009, I had intended it to be a way for Nick and I to keep tabs on our bet to make it more interesting. I expected maybe a dozen or so mutual friends would get a chuckle out of it. Never would I expect that there would be over 17,500 spectators to the discussion six months later. Agree or disagree, people care about the prediction that there could be a world in the not to distant future with significantly less Microsoft software.

Sure, it would have been nice to be better known for my work with the Ohio LinuxFest and other FOSS volunteer work that I have done for the past ten years. Those who read this blog consistently know I do use this blog to resolve conflict within FOSS.  The debate on if and when Microsoft will fall is something that people want to read, regardless as to who is saying it. If that makes me an anti-Microsoft FUDer, then so be it, but by far I am not alone. The shoe fits. I wear it and advise Microsoft to do the same.

I am not the first to predict Microsoft’s demise with Linux to the better. Heck, I am not even the first to predict a dramatic drop in a 24 month period. Be sure to put Newsweek and Techblorge on your list of people who are calling doom for the software giant. What makes my prediction unique, is I allow you, the spectators of this $20 bet, participate in the discussion of what will we use on June 30, 2011. Now that is community.

Early on, Nick gave me several opportunities to back out.  I declined because I was really liking what I was hearing out of Microsoft.  I noticed them taking the time to fight Linux, which makes me wonder why they would do that if they did not perceive a potential for loss of market share. Moreover, for every moment that Microsoft fights with FUD, it brings Linux closer to winning. How does that work? Microsoft can not keep up with both open source and Apple.

The harder they fight the less resources they have to go into product. Customers are running away from Microsoft products. Everyday I see people dumping Windows for Linux or MacOSX. Even former Microsoft apologist, Don Dodge, has gone Google. From what I can see, Microsoft is shrinking. It would be to Microsoft’s benefit to get out of the FUD business and focus on selling out of Windows 7. That way it could be an example of a successful American company like Red Hat instead of General Motors.

So, please keep dishing the FUD, Microsoft. Meanwhile, consider the following…

Mark and Jane know how to rock the market: volume== 11. Photo credit: alternatePhotography

On August 20, 2004, Mark Shuttleworth filed the first trouble ticket that affects the Ubuntu Linux distribution:  “Microsoft has a majority market share.” This blog is based on the bet that this very issue will be resolved by June 30, 2011. On December 17, 2009, Mark Shuttleworth announced that he is stepping aside from being CEO of Cannonical, the sponsoring company of Ubuntu, and handing the reigns over to Jane Silber. Ubuntu User, an up-and-coming magazine specific to the community around the Ubuntu Linux distribution was the first to cover the story.

For most CEOs this would mean cashing out, retirement, or finding another company to found and/or lead. Instead, Mr. Shuttleworth is positioning to be even more intensely focused and committed on the vision in which he founded: making Ubuntu itself the best operating system. Ubuntu already offers an awesome user experience for both free software advocates and your typical home user. Once OEMs recognize the fact Ubuntu is superior to the Windows 7 operating system in value, quality, usability, and performance, Microsoft will lack majority market share. Mr. Shuttleworth is so excited he can taste it. Crank it to 11!

Taking the lead is Ms. Silber. Without question she is also very dedicated to resolving bug one. I include this circa 2008 video for point of reference.

Utimately, this is good news for Canonical, Ubuntu, and Linux. The popularity of Ubuntu is so great that Canonical must grow while focusing on the product quality. It is also good news for me since I am looking forward to collecting Nick’s $20. Nick emailed me privately because he sees the significance. Ubuntu is ready to rock the desktop market share.

I waited awhile to read the commentary from the rest of the media before posting. The response to this issue is overwhelming. If it is true that only 1% of the world’s desktops are Linux, then just for argument’s sake, let us say Ubuntu has about a third of that 1% at 0.33% of the global desktop market share.  Can someone tell me why Google has over 2,500,000 articles on the subject on who is going to be the next Canonical CEO?

As Mark Shuttleworth continues to reach for the stars, Jane Silber will lead Ubuntu through the journey.

Free power and free software are possible. We already own the resources. Let's make it happen. Photo Credit: Storm Crypt of Flickr

I believe it should be an obvious idea that clean air is good. Telling the world they want to breathe less pollutantsis a lot like telling everyone that free and open source software is in their best interest. Even though it seems like common sense to the believers, it is inconveniently inconsistent with the way of life in economic powerhouses like the United States.

Most computing environments contain an overwhelming quantity of Microsoft software. Even if the products we use every day are tainted, nobody wants to believe it. Instead users, even those who prefer open source, silently stick to status-quo. It’s easier to shell out $100 here and there to ignore the issue.

Open source software is an ideal which is competing against tangible products that come in shrink-wrapped boxes. All of the answers on how sharing code with your neighbor is commercially healthy are detailed in the 1985 GNU Manifesto. That was almost 25 years ago, why in the world does the political agenda of software freedom seem radical? The answer is that proprietary software companies have been pushing their counter-propaganda.

Even if you try to give people software that is free as in cost and code, you may be told NO due to Microsoft’s own propaganda:

FEAR Microsoft’s own code, even though they will not let you see it, is more secure because they have the best software development processes in place.

UNCERTAINITY If you use free software it is ripping off Microsoft who might sue one of these days.

DOUBT If you install free software, you may be paying more in the long run.

Together these tacticts are called FUD and Microsoft is king at it. Don’t believe me, ask wikipedia. 

Ultimately FUD is not marketing, it is propaganda. It is the equivalent of a political smear campaign were both sides are shouting loudly that the other side is BAD BAD BAD. People should expect that behavior out of free and open source software advocates like myself. But if Microsoft really is the brand that everyone trusts, tell me why does Microsoft would opt to fight instead of ignore?

In a way, watching Microsoft try to answer the question of “why not Linux” proves that the products that I prefer are relevant. Consider this: If Linux-based products were really only about 1% of the market share, why does Microsoft spend so many resources bringing themselves to level of political zealous for a political smear campaign? It is because when people are actually given the choice of Linux or Windows, 32% choose Linux. What would happen if Linux, Windows, and Apple were sold in the same place with comparable hardware? I bet that Microsoft would not be purchased 50% of the time come June 30, 2011.

Why do I think I will win that $20 in a political battle that is up against a corporation with a massive marketing budget? Microsoft is not too big to fail. They already tried that argument in 2006.

There are two ways in which a revolutionary paths that could change what we will use:

1. Disruptive Technology: The dominant market player is knocked into irrelevance due to the utter inferiority. Killer applications emerge. Users drop everything for the more fun products.

2. House of Cards: The dominant market player does something so offensive to the general population that all trust is lost. Collapse is its own doing. The exposure of the offensive action can be triggered by outside political forces or internal mistakes. Either way, the structure is unsustainable.

This is Beth Lynn Eicher, the Editor-in-Chief of “What will we use,”  a political forum in favor of software freedom. If you wish to respond to the contents of this message, you may do so in the comments.